AMBIGUITY AVOIDANCE EFFECT PERFORMANCE IN BINARY-CHOICE TASKS

Abstract

This article raises a problem of desicion-making under uncertainty, in particular the perfomance of ambiguity avoidance and the impact of situational factors. Irrationality in desicion-making and limits of norm theory are discussed. Also we mention the influence of second-order ambiguity on choice and ambiguity avoidance and pathways of it's comprehension. Current study makes an effort to demonstrate an ambiguity avoidance effect in three binary choice tasks, which differs by means of ambiguity setting: by definite or indefinite intervals of probability or by condotional probability of the outcomes. The influence of hypotheticality and availability of choice results on desicion-making and ambiguity avoidance effect perfomance. According to the results the indefinite probability intervals and conditional probabilities could be considered as ambiguity sources, while definite probabilit intervals don't demonstrate significant influence on choice or ambiguity avoidance.The hypotheses about situational factors' infuence of choice wasn't confirmed. In conclusion сhoice simplification was suggested to be the most credible mechanism of ambuiguity avoidance.